Needed: Cognitive forensics?
Perhaps we need a new field of "cognitive forensics" for analyzing and investigating motivated scientific error, bias, and intellectual misconduct. The goal would be to develop a comprehensive toolkit...
View ArticleWhen are weak clues uncomfortable?
Robin Hanson asked, "What is the common element of topics where people are uncomfortable with weak clues?" I will hazard a guess: There are situations where even considering (deliberating about, giving...
View ArticleMultipolar disagreements (Hal’s religious quandry)
Hal Finney wrote: "…reminds me of my justification for not being religious: the majority of people in the world are not Christian, the majority of people in the world are not Muslim, the majority of...
View ArticleOvercoming bias – what is it good for?
One sign that science is not all bogus is that it enables us to do things, like go the moon. What practical things does debiassing enable us to do, other than refraining from buying lottery tickets?...
View ArticleURGENT AND IMPORTANT (not)
Eliezer recently noted the general problem of lack of accountability for futuristic predictions. I wonder if there may not also be an additional problem specifically for claims of urgency or importance...
View ArticleDisagreeing about cognitive style (or personality)
I think I can understand what Tyler is getting at when he accuses Robin of a penchant for "logical atomism". In the present context, I interpret Tyler’s claim as a plea for greater appreciation of the...
View ArticleWhy do corporations buy insurance?
Yesterday I wondered: Why do corporations by insurance for fire damage and such? It seems to me that maybe the oughtn’t, since the cost of insurance is greater than the expected payouts (due to...
View ArticleTowards a typology of bias
It seems to me that we have reached a stage in our discussions on this blog, and in the field of bias studies more generally, where it would be useful to begin to develop a more systematic typology....
View ArticleMoral uncertainty – towards a solution?
It seems people are overconfident about their moral beliefs. But how should one reason and act if one acknowledges that one is uncertain about morality – not just applied ethics but fundamental moral...
View ArticleWrite Your Hypothetical Apostasy
Let's say you have been promoting some view (on some complex or fraught topic – e.g. politics, religion; or any "cause" or "-ism") for some time. When somebody criticizes this view, you spring to its...
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